Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps navy struck a supertanker in the Strait of Hormuz. According to Tehran, the vessel had turned off its automatic identification system and was following an unauthorized route. This was the third ship attacked in these waters in two days. Escalation in the Middle East and continued Houthi strikes are keeping Brent crude above $100/bbl. The geopolitical risk premium outweighs signals of potential supply increases, including a resumption of Gulf of Mexico output after the hurricane. It is the combination of several risks that helps Brent hold above $100 even after reports of possible supply additions.

While energy prices and bond yields are rising, the threat of further Fed rate hikes this year remains. As a result, major Wall Street indices traded mixed on Monday:

• S&P 500 stayed near its record high
• Dow Jones added about 200 points
• Nasdaq 100 fell by about 0.4%

Strong expectations for third-quarter corporate profits are offsetting tight credit conditions caused by high Treasury yields. Expensive fuel is meanwhile reinforcing the Fed's hawkish stance. That produced sector rotation in the equity market:

• Software names Meta and Salesforce rose by about 2% and 5%, respectively
• Chipmakers Micron, AMD, and Marvell declined by roughly 3% each amid AI-infrastructure volatility

Safe-haven relationships rotated as well. Non-yielding silver and gold clearly lost ground to the dollar, which rose to an 18-month high. Precious metals resumed their slide:

• Silver fell to $60.7/oz
• Gold pulled back from one-week highs to about $4,180/oz

One driver of the greenback rally was market caution ahead of US consumer and producer inflation releases (CPI, PPI), as well as retail sales data. CME FedWatch puts the odds of an October Fed rate hike below 20%, while the chance of a December move is about 85%. Wall Street Journal experts expect US Treasury yields to remain high through next year.

What keeps Treasuries attractive — and thus underpins dollar demand — is the calendar risk. The decisive near-term Fed input will be the September US inflation report: softer readings would give the Fed room to delay a rate increase until December, reducing market volatility. Investors are also watching the IMF and World Bank annual meetings.

October 13

October 13, 02:01 / United Kingdom / ** / BRC Retail Sales (September) / prev.: 1.0% / actual: 0.5% / cons.: 0.7% / GBP/USD — up

Retail sales growth in the UK for August slowed sharply, showing the weakest print since autumn 2024. Consumer activity was hit by:

• a shift in seasonal grocery and cosmetics buying to an earlier period after an unusually hot start to summer
• a 0.8% drop in non-food sales as households pulled back on big-ticket purchases of furniture and appliances
• slower food sales growth, down to 2.6% from July's 3.8%
• a fall in the consumer confidence index from 30 to 26

Analysts expect a modest pickup in retail sales in September, which could provide some support for the British pound.

October 13, 02:50 / Japan / ** / Producer Price Index (PPI) (September) / prev.: 7.7% / actual: 7.6% / cons.: 7.6% / USD/JPY — volatile

Japan's producer prices in August remained close to multi-year highs, registering one of the strongest growth rates since early 2023. Pro-inflationary pressure was broad-based, led by:

• information & communications technology (+19.5%) and chemicals (+13.9%)
• oil & coal (+14.7%), and beverage & food production (+4.3%)
• electrical equipment (+4.1%), machinery (+3.9%), and metal products (+3.5%)

Markets are pricing in sustained annual PPI inflation in September. Persistently high input costs for businesses raise the odds of tighter policy from the Bank of Japan, which could support the yen.

October 13, 03:30 / Australia / ** / NAB Business Confidence (September) / prev.: -6 / actual: -8 / cons.: -9 / AUD/USD — down

Australia's business confidence index for August fell to its lowest level since May. The business environment showed a six-year low in activity driven by weaker sales, margin compression, and job cuts. Ongoing cost pressures and a drop in the pipeline of future orders are forcing firms to be cautious on investment and hiring. Economists forecast further deterioration in business sentiment for September. Cooling in manufacturing and trade activity will likely put pressure on the Australian dollar.

October 13, 09:00 / Germany / *** / Consumer Price Index (CPI) (prelim., September) / prev.: 2.8% / actual: 2.9% / cons.: 3.3% / EUR/USD — up

Germany's annual consumer inflation accelerated sharply in the preliminary September read, reaching its highest level since late 2023. Key drivers of the price surge included:

• a jump in energy inflation to 14.9% amid higher global oil prices and geopolitical tensions around Iran
• an acceleration in food inflation from 0.1% to 0.4%
• core inflation holding at a steady 2.4% while services inflation cooled modestly to 2.7%

Analysts had expected further upward pressure on annual inflation. A firmer inflation backdrop increases the likelihood of a continued hawkish ECB stance, which could support the euro.

October 13, 15:15 / US / ** / ADP Average Weekly Job Gains / prev.: 20.0k / actual: 23.75k / cons.: — / USDX (six-currency dollar index) — volatile

Private-sector average weekly job gains for the third week of September came in at 23.75k, marking the fastest hiring pace in three months. The trend points to a resilient underlying labor market. Accelerating payroll activity will provide support to the US dollar.

October 13, 17:00 / US / ** / Existing Home Sales (September) / prev.: 4.06m / actual: 3.98m / cons.: 3.96m / USDX — down

US existing home sales fell by 2.0% month-on-month in August, reflecting higher mortgage rates driven by rising energy costs and stronger bond yields. Factors shaping the sector's results included:

• weaker buyer activity in the Northeast (-4.0%), Midwest (-3.1%), and South (-1.6%), with activity flat in the West
• a 3.2% increase in available listings to 1.62 million properties
• a 1.6% annual rise in the median home price to $429,100

Markets are positioning for further softness in existing home sales. Cooling housing demand will likely weigh on the greenback.

October 14

October 14, 04:30 / China / *** / Consumer Price Index (CPI) (September) / prev.: 0.5% / actual: 0.8% / cons.: 1.0% / Brent — up, USD/CNY — down

China's consumer inflation accelerated in September, rebounding from a multi-month low. Key contributors to the rise included:

• higher non-food prices driven by rising fuel costs and a pickup in tourism
• increases in the cost of medical services, clothing, and education
• continued decline in food prices (-1.4%) amid excess pork supply
• core inflation (ex-food and energy) rising to 1.0%

Analysts expect further acceleration in consumer prices. A stronger inflation impulse and rising domestic demand in China would support commodity markets and push the yuan stronger.

October 14, 04:30 / China / ** / Producer Price Index (PPI) (September) / prev.: 3.5% / actual: 3.8% / cons.: 4.5% / Brent — up, USD/CNY — down

China's producer prices rose in September, beating consensus. Drivers of producer price inflation included:

• sharp increases in mining and raw material costs (+17.8%) and commodity inputs (+6.7%) due to the global energy squeeze and logistics disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz
• faster price growth in durable goods segments (+1.2%)
• a slowdown in the pace of decline for consumer goods prices

Markets are pricing in a material pickup in industrial inflation for September. Strength in the manufacturing sector and higher commodity prices could support Brent and press USD/CNY down.

October 14, 05:00 / China / *** / Trade Balance (September) / prev.: $112.5bn / actual: $119.1bn / cons.: $114.5bn / Brent — down, USD/CNY — up

China's trade surplus widened notably in September, powered by strong exporters. External trade highlights included:

• exports jumped by 25% on robust global demand for AI infrastructure
• shipments to the US rose by 34.4%, pushing the bilateral surplus to the largest level since early 2025
• imports increased by 28.2%
• the cumulative trade surplus for the year rose to $806bn

Analysts expect the export surplus to remain elevated in the near term.

October 14, 09:00 / Germany / ** / Wholesale Prices (September) / prev.: 5.3% / actual: 6.8% / cons.: 7.0% / EUR/USD — up

Germany's wholesale prices accelerated sharply in September, hitting the highest rate since early 2023. Strong price pressure at the wholesale level was driven by:

• a surge in prices for oil products (+36.1%) and non-ferrous metals (+27.4%) amid the Middle East conflict
• higher costs in the chemical industry (+13.6%) and IT equipment (+11.1%)
• price declines in livestock (-18.3%), dairy (-10.3%), and meat processing (-6.7%)

Analysts expect further acceleration in wholesale inflation for September. Rising input costs at early production stages increase the likelihood of a hawkish European Central Bank, which could support the euro.

October 14, 15:30 / Canada / ** / Building Permits (August) / prev.: 18.3% / actual: -17.3% / cons.: 3.1% / USD/CAD — down

Building permits in Canada plunged in August to their lowest level since summer 2023. The deterioration reflected:

• a sharp drop in non-residential permit value amid weakness in the institutional and industrial segments
• reduced housing-construction plans following weakness in multi- and single-family sectors
• a significant miss versus expectations after a strong June rebound

Economists expect a solid recovery in permit issuance in September. A restart in developer activity could support the Canadian dollar.

October 14, 15:30 / US / *** / Consumer Price Index (CPI) (September) / prev.: 3.4% / actual: 3.4% / cons.: 3.7% / USDX (six-currency dollar index) — up

US annual consumer inflation for September held steady at the prior reading, matching market expectations. Price dynamics were shaped by:

• large annual increases in gasoline (+27.4%) and fuel oil (+52.0%)
• softer price growth in housing and food categories
• a rise in core monthly inflation driven by higher airfares, telecom, education, and used-car prices
• core annual inflation remaining near the lowest levels since spring 2021

Analysts expect further upward pressure on CPI. Stronger inflation could support the dollar.

October 14, 23:30 / US / ** / Crude Oil Inventories (API, week to Oct. 2) / prev.: +1.019m bbl / actual: -2.09m bbl / cons.: — / Brent — up

US commercial crude inventories fell in the week to October 2, reversing the prior week's build. Market details included:

• a decline in commercial crude stocks and a 1.37 million-barrel drop in gasoline inventories
• an 866,000-barrel rise in crude stocks at Cushing and higher distillate inventories
• production rising to 13.955 million barrels per day
• a release of 800,000 barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve

A sizeable draw in commercial crude inventories could support Brent crude prices.

Oct. 12–18 / IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings (Bangkok, Thailand)

Oct. 12, 12:30 / United Kingdom / Speech by BoE Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden / GBP/USD

Oct. 12, 15:50 / United Kingdom / Speech by Catherine Mann, BoE Monetary Policy Committee / GBP/USD

Oct. 13, 09:05 / Canada / Speech by Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem / USD/CAD

Oct. 13, 19:10 / US / Speech by Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack / USDX

Oct. 13, 03:30 / Australia / Release of RBA minutes (Sept. 29 meeting) / AUD/USD

Oct. 13, 06:00 / UK / Speech by Megan Greene, BoE Monetary Policy Committee / GBP/USD

Oct. 13, 10:15 / Eurozone / Speech by Frank Elderson, ECB Supervisory Board / EUR/USD

Oct. 13, 10:45 / US / Speech by Fed Governor Christopher Waller / USDX

Oct. 13, 19:00 / UK / Speech by Swati Dhingra, BoE Monetary Policy Committee / GBP/USD

Oct. 13, 20:00 / US / Speech by Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin / USDX

Oct. 13, 20:30 / Eurozone / Speech by Philip Lane, ECB Governing Council / EUR/USD

Oct. 13, 23:00 / US / Speech by Boston Fed President Susan Collins / USDX

Oct. 14, 05:10 & 11:30 / Eurozone / Speeches by ECB President Christine Lagarde / EUR/USD

Oct. 14, 06:30 / UK / Speech by BoE Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden / GBP/USD

Oct. 14, 08:30 / UK / Speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey / GBP/USD

Oct. 14, 09:00 / UK / Speech by Hugh Pyle, BoE Monetary Policy Committee / GBP/USD

Oct. 14, 09:05 / Canada / Speech by Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem / USD/CAD

Oct. 14, 11:00 / Eurozone / Speech by Frank Elderson, ECB Supervisory Board / EUR/USD

Oct. 14, 11:15 / Eurozone / Speech by Claudia Buch, ECB Single Supervisory Board / EUR/USD

Oct. 14, 12:40 / US / Speech by Fed Governor Michelle Bowman / USDX

Oct. 14, 19:15 / Eurozone / Speech by ECB Executive Board Member Isabel Schnabel / EUR/USD

Oct. 14, 20:30 / US / Speech by Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin / USDX

Oct. 14, 21:00 / US / Release of the Fed's Beige Book (regional economic summary) / USDX

Numerous central bank officials are scheduled to speak during the IMF/World Bank meetings. Their comments typically trigger FX volatility because they can shed light on future interest rate paths.

The economic calendar is available via the link. All indicators are shown year-over-year (y/y) unless otherwise noted; monthly figures are marked (m/m). Trade balance, export, and import values are listed in the local currency. Asterisk (*) denotes the report's importance for instruments available on the InstaTrade platform (in ascending order). Publication times are stated in Moscow time (GMT+3). Open a trading account here. See also InstaTrade market video updates and download the MobileTrader app to keep instruments at hand.