Veja também
14.10.2026 08:45 AMA price test at 1.3241 occurred after the MACD indicator had already moved far above the zero line, limiting the pair's upside potential. For that reason, I did not buy the pound.
The pound rose amid dollar weakness, driven not by US data but by comments from John Williams. The data looked decent, but the market barely reacted. Existing-home sales rose to 3.99 million versus a 3.95 million forecast, which is moderately positive for the dollar given high mortgage rates and still-resilient housing demand.
Weekly ADP employment change was +24.8k versus +25.3k a week earlier, so the labor market is keeping a slow but positive hiring pace. The NFIB small-business optimism index slipped slightly to 97.9 versus expectations of 98.0 and 98.7 a month earlier. Small business is sensitive to borrowing costs, so the modest decline in sentiment signals pressure from high rates.
But the key event was Williams' remarks. He allowed for one more hike this year but sees no need for tightening in 2027, and US Treasury yields eased slightly.
The UK calendar is empty this morning, but Bank of England speeches may matter more than any numbers. Andrew Bailey and Huw Pill will speak, and the pound will watch how hawkish they sound on rates. Hawkish comments can support a bullish impulse because the market reads them as arguments for keeping rates high, making sterling more attractive. Recall Pill voted in July for an immediate hike and is among the more hawkish MPC members, so he may confirm a cautious inflation assessment. In September, Bailey spoke mainly about central-bank independence, so the market now expects clearer guidance from him.
For intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on Scenarios 1 and 2.
Scenario 1: Buy the pound today near 1.3271 (green line on the chart), targeting 1.3268 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3268, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (aiming for a 30–35 pip reversal from that level). Expect pound gains today only as a correction. Important: before buying, ensure MACD is above zero and only beginning to rise from it.
Scenario 2: Also consider buying if price tests 1.3260 twice while MACD is in the oversold area. That would limit downside potential and trigger an upward reversal. Expect moves to the opposite levels 1.3271 and 1.3288.
Scenario 1: Plan to sell the pound after it breaks 1.3260 (red line on the chart), which should lead to a swift decline. Sellers' key target is 1.3244, where I plan to exit shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (aiming for a 20–25 pip reversal from that level). Bad news would restore pressure on the pound. Important: before selling, ensure MACD is below zero and only beginning to fall from it.
Scenario 2: Also consider selling if price tests 1.3271 twice while MACD is in the overbought area. That would limit upside potential and trigger a reversal downward. Expect declines toward the opposite levels of 1.3260 and 1.3244.
Thin green line — entry price where you can buy the instrument.
Thick green line — approximate price where you can place Take Profit or manually lock in profits, because further upside above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line — entry price where you can sell the instrument.
Thick red line — approximate price where you can place Take Profit or manually lock in profits, because further downside below this level is unlikely.
MACD indicator. When entering the market, it's important to consider overbought and oversold zones.
Important. Novice Forex traders must be very cautious when deciding to enter the market. It is best to stay out before major fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes.
Remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the example above. Spontaneous trade decisions based solely on the immediate market situation are, by definition, a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
