Trade Analysis and Trading Advice for the Euro

The test of 1.1208 occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving upward from the zero line, confirming that the entry point for buying the euro was appropriate. However, the pair failed to rise.

The euro declined in the first half of the day, raising the question of which factor is having a greater influence on the currency today: the domestic economic calendar or external events. So far, external factors have prevailed. There are no eurozone data releases, leaving the euro without any domestic support, and selling pressure returned almost immediately. The situation in the Middle East continues to create significant geopolitical tensions, prompting market participants to reduce their risk exposure. In these conditions, I believe euro buyers will remain cautious. For now, I view any rebound as an opportunity to consider selling rather than as a sign of a change in market sentiment.

The euro enters the second half of the day without its usual market cues. US markets are closed, there are no economic data releases, and attention will shift to a speech by FOMC member Beth M. Hammack. The closure of US markets usually leads to less active trading, but it does not guarantee calm conditions. As long as tensions in the region persist, any news may trigger sharp price movements. I expect the balance of power to remain unchanged, with the US dollar maintaining its advantage over the euro. I would not expect a strong rebound in EUR/USD while geopolitical uncertainty remains a factor.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on implementing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, the euro can be bought when the price reaches around 1.1193 (the green line on the chart), with an upward target of 1.1208. At 1.1208, I plan to close the position and also consider selling the euro in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. A rise in the euro today may be possible if US data are weaker than expected. Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has only just begun moving upward from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today if the price tests 1.1179 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward reversal. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1193 and 1.1208 can then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1179 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1164, where I intend to close the position and immediately open a position in the opposite direction by buying the euro, targeting a 20–25-point move upward from that level. Selling pressure on the pair could return at any time. Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has only just begun moving downward from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today if the price tests 1.1193 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. A decline toward the next levels of 1.1179 and 1.1164 can then be expected.

What the Chart Shows

• Thin green line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought.
• Thick green line — the estimated price level at which a Take Profit order can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further gains above this level are considered unlikely.
• Thin red line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold.
• Thick red line — the estimated price level at which a Take Profit order can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further declines below this level are considered unlikely.
• MACD indicator — when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold conditions.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should exercise great caution when making entry decisions. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is generally best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden exchange-rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire trading deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade with large position sizes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is a fundamentally flawed strategy for an intraday trader.