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04.11.2026 04:03 PM
See also: Trading indicators from InstaTrade for NASDAQ100 (NDX)
At the start of the US session on Wednesday, November 4, 2026, NASDAQ100 futures (NDX) trade around 28,270.0, attempting to recover after a sharp intraday drop below 27,500.0 triggered by Democrats' wins in both chambers of Congress. The initial reaction was severe: futures plunged more than 2% and breached the key 200-day moving average (28,220.0) as the market repriced regulatory risk for AI. By the European session most losses had been retraced: the index moved back above 28,200.0, and futures even traded above 28,400.0 into small gains. The market is digesting the political shock and returning to fundamentals: will AI investments pay off, and what will the Fed do in December?
The Democratic victory—priced before the vote at roughly 70–75% and now materializing with near 90% odds for both chambers—forced an immediate repricing of tech-sector risks: concerns over AI regulation, chip export curbs, and data center policy hit the most overheated segments.
Key drivers
Regulatory risk remains the primary pressure factor. Democrats are traditionally less favorable to large-scale AI infrastructure build-outs. Barclays notes, however, that fears of nationwide data center bans "look overstated" given continued support from Trump. Real policy changes in Washington may also not arrive soon: the new Congress takes office January 3. A Democratic win in Texas—a state that Bloom Energy expects to supply about 30% of U.S. data center capacity by 2028—adds uncertainty but does not negate current demand.
Buyers bought the dip. After the initial collapse, NASDAQ 100 futures fully recovered losses and turned positive. Deutsche Bank upgraded U.S. tech from neutral to positive late last week, noting the sector had lagged the market by 16% over three weeks and that positioning already reflected "material risks around AI demand and potential regulation." Morgan Stanley says the broader correction may be approaching a terminal phase.
Fundamentals remain strong. AWS grew about 39% in Q3, Microsoft Azure nearly 50%, and Google Cloud more than doubled. ASML warns current capacity may be insufficient for demand over the next two years. Bank of America contrasts this cycle with the dot-com bubble: today's AI boom shows demand abundance and compute scarcity, not excess supply.
Brief technical analysis
InstaTrade's aggregated technicals (daily) signal "Strong sell": 21 of 23 indicators favor sellers.
The short-term picture remains bearish while the index tests critical support (weekly EMA50) that historically produced rebounds.
- RSI (14, daily) sits near 36—below neutral 50 but above deep oversold. No capitulation signal, nor clear reason for confident optimism.
- OsMA remains negative; the histogram does not show a sustained contraction, indicating ongoing downside pressure.
- Stochastic (9,6) is in oversold territory; no reliable reversal yet.
- Daily EMAs: EMA50 = 29,540.0, EMA144 = 28,830.0, EMA200 = 28,220.0—price is testing the 200-day MA. Holding above it is critical; a break lower clears the path to 27,650.0 and 27,060.0.
- Weekly EMA50 = 27,650.0: long-term support below current levels, aligned with July lows.
See detailed scenarios in this article: NASDAQ100 (NDX): possible scenarios for 04.11.2026
Key events to watch
Wednesday, Nov 4, 13:15 GMT — ADP employment (Oct). Strong print would bolster December Fed hike odds (~75%) and weigh on growth stocks.
Wednesday, Nov 4, 15:00 GMT — ISM services (Oct). Resilient readings would reinforce the "U.S. exceptionalism" narrative and support bond yields, indirectly pressuring NDX.
Friday, Nov 6, 13:30 GMT — U.S. nonfarm payrolls (Oct). The main macro trigger of the week. Weak NFP could ease Fed hawkishness and give the tech sector relief.
NVIDIA earnings—heightened volatility is priced around NVDA results; the company reports Nov 17 (conference call 14:00 PT / 22:00 GMT). The market will focus on revenue, guidance, and commentary on demand for the Vera Rubin platform and regulatory risk impacts. NVDA's revenue guide (~$108bn ±2%) and management color will be a catalyst after shares traded below the 200-day MA.
Conclusion and trade ideas
NASDAQ100 is trying to hold above the 200-day MA after the "blue wave" shock. Bull key level: 28,830.0. Bear key level: 28,220.0. Critical support zone: 27,650.0–27,500.0.
Short-term traders
- Consider short entries on a sustained break below 28,150.0 with targets of 27,750.0–27,650.0 and a stop-loss above 28,500.0.
- Consider long entries on a confirmed rebound off 28,220.0 with targets of 28,830.0–29,000. 0; this setup would require either a weak NFP or a moderation in regulatory rhetoric.
- Monitor NFP (Nov 6) and bond yields—these are the key triggers.
Medium-term investors
- A correction toward 27,650.0–27,060.0 may provide an opportunity to add long exposure, assuming a constructive long-term view on the AI theme. Regulatory uncertainty and the risk of a confirmed break below the 200-day MA require caution. Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley argue much of the negativity is priced in, but markets may remain volatile until the political picture clarifies.
Risk management
- Expect elevated volatility around vote counts and employment prints.
- Use strict stop losses when trading breakouts of the key levels.
- Track Treasury yields, Fed commentary, and regulatory developments from the new Congress.
This overview is based on public sources and media reporting and reflects price dynamics driven by multiple factors; risk management and position control are essential.
